Convert raw scale predictions to per-capita

step_population_scaling() creates a specification of a recipe step that will perform per-capita scaling. Typical usage would set df to be a dataset that contains state-level population, and use it to convert predictions made from a raw scale model to rate-scale by dividing by the population. Although, it is worth noting that there is nothing special about "population", and the function can be used to scale by any variable. Population is the standard use case in the epidemiology forecasting scenario. Any value passed will divide the selected variables while the rate_rescaling argument is a common multiplier of the selected variables.

Usage

step_population_scaling(
  recipe,
  ...,
  role = "raw",
  df,
  by = NULL,
  df_pop_col,
  rate_rescaling = 1,
  create_new = TRUE,
  suffix = "_scaled",
  skip = FALSE,
  id = rand_id("population_scaling")
)

Arguments

recipe

A recipe object. The step will be added to the sequence of operations for this recipe.

...

One or more selector functions to choose variables for this step. See recipes::selections() for more details.

role

For model terms created by this step, what analysis role should they be assigned?

df

a data frame containing the scaling data (such as population). The target column is divided by the value in df_pop_col.

by

A (possibly named) character vector of variables to join df onto the epi_df by.

If NULL, the default, the function will try to infer a reasonable set of columns. First, it will try to join by all variables in the training/test data with roles "geo_value", "key", or "time_value" that also appear in df; these roles are automatically set if you are using an epi_df, or you can use, e.g., update_role. If no such roles are set, it will try to perform a natural join, using variables in common between the training/test data and population data.

If columns in the training/testing data and df have the same name (and aren't included in by), a .df suffix is added to the one from the user-provided data to disambiguate.

To join by different variables on the epi_df and df, use a named vector. For example, by = c("geo_value" = "states") will match epi_df$geo_value to df$states. To join by multiple variables, use a vector with length > 1. For example, by = c("geo_value" = "states", "county" = "county") will match epi_df$geo_value to df$states and epi_df$county to df$county.

See dplyr::inner_join() for more details.

df_pop_col

the name of the column in the data frame df that contains the population data and will be used for scaling. This should be one column.

rate_rescaling

Sometimes raw scales are "per 100K" or "per 1M". Adjustments can be made here. For example, if the original scale is "per 100K", then set rate_rescaling = 1e5 to get rates.

create_new

TRUE to create a new column and keep the original column in the epi_df

suffix

a character. The suffix added to the column name if create_new = TRUE. Default to "_scaled".

skip

A logical. Should the step be skipped when the recipe is baked by bake()? While all operations are baked when prep() is run, some operations may not be able to be conducted on new data (e.g. processing the outcome variable(s)). Care should be taken when using skip = TRUE as it may affect the computations for subsequent operations.

id

A unique identifier for the step

Value

Scales raw data by the population

Examples

jhu <- cases_deaths_subset %>%
  filter(time_value > "2021-11-01", geo_value %in% c("ca", "ny")) %>%
  select(geo_value, time_value, cases)

pop_data <- data.frame(states = c("ca", "ny"), value = c(20000, 30000))

r <- epi_recipe(jhu) %>%
  step_population_scaling(
    df = pop_data,
    df_pop_col = "value",
    by = c("geo_value" = "states"),
    cases, suffix = "_scaled"
  ) %>%
  step_epi_lag(cases_scaled, lag = c(0, 7, 14)) %>%
  step_epi_ahead(cases_scaled, ahead = 7, role = "outcome") %>%
  step_epi_naomit()

f <- frosting() %>%
  layer_predict() %>%
  layer_threshold(.pred) %>%
  layer_naomit(.pred) %>%
  layer_population_scaling(.pred,
    df = pop_data,
    by = c("geo_value" = "states"),
    df_pop_col = "value"
  )

wf <- epi_workflow(r, linear_reg()) %>%
  fit(jhu) %>%
  add_frosting(f)

forecast(wf)
#> An `epi_df` object, 2 x 4 with metadata:
#> * geo_type  = state
#> * time_type = day
#> * as_of     = 2024-03-20
#> 
#> # A tibble: 2 × 4
#>   geo_value time_value .pred .pred_scaled
#>   <chr>     <date>     <dbl>        <dbl>
#> 1 ca        2021-12-31  4.25       84938.
#> 2 ny        2021-12-31  5.93      177766.